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Current Results of Our Research
These pages, marked with
GREEN headings, are published for
comment and criticism. These
are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change.
LOG OF UPDATES
CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings
Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #23
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #23 |
What
effect will this have on policing? |
| |
Determine how
difficult it would be to make and enforce laws if novel products are readily
available through molecular manufacturing. |
| Subquestion |
Could a 'home
appliance' version of the manufacturing technology be used to produce
undesirable products? |
| Preliminary answer |
Yes. Just
download the blueprint from the Internet. It could be as easy as printing a
picture from a Web browser today. |
| Subquestion |
Could medical
advances lead to new and controversial pleasure devices/drugs? |
| Preliminary answer |
Yes. Although the
chemistry may not be able to make medical chemical compounds, it could make
very sophisticated surgical robots. For example, 'acupuncture needle' type
probes (with antibiotic surfaces) that can be used for direct brain
stimulation ('wireheading') with relatively low medical risk. Or new kinds
of sexual appliances. |
| Subquestion |
How easily could
a black market in these technologies be maintained? |
| Preliminary answer |
For some, more
easily than today's drug market. |
| Subquestion |
How well could lawmaking keep up
with newly invented products? |
| Preliminary answer |
Whole new classes
of pleasure device? It'll be hard even to decide what's socially acceptable
and what's not. |
| Subquestion |
How much would
new weaponry endanger police? |
| Preliminary answer |
See the study on
military implications (#20).
There won't be parity between police and criminals. If criminals have access
to advanced weapons, any flesh-and-blood policeman will be in the position
of a civilian and police would have to depend on systemic incentives not to
kill them. The next likely alternative is that police become
paramilitary—SWAT team or "Robocop" —or use remote sensor nets and
telepresence. |
| Subquestion |
How would the
'arms race' between invention and detection/defense affect crime? Terrorism?
|
| Preliminary answer |
Criminals and
terrorists tend to be stupid and unimaginative, but so do bureaucracies. A
smart bad guy would find a large range of new opportunities. Again, it'll be
difficult to 'harden' civilian targets against crime as well as destructive
attack. |
|
Law enforcement
expert Tom
Cowper suggests that "the biggest unknown is how effective the public
police can become—effectively stopping criminals while effectively
preserving civil liberties. This is where concepts such as Net-Centric
Policing/Government come into play." In previous conversations with us, he's
argued that a key factor is whether we or the terrorists become better at
using networks, "augmented reality", and other tech tools.
|
| |
More from
Tom Cowper
on this topic: "The issue of
molecular manufacturing (MM) mandates dramatic improvements in the way we do
policing in the free world. If we are to maintain a free society in an MM
world we will have to become very effective at identifying, stopping and
incapacitating criminals and terrorists of the future, and do so in a way
that does not violate civil liberties. Admittedly a tall order. But as CRN
has pointed out, a police state is one definite possibility for the future
if government and law enforcement doesn't get its act together and find ways
to provide both safety and security, which includes regulating MM to some
extent. We don't have to become entirely paramilitary to accomplish this but
we will have to employ advanced technologies, including MM created weapons
and IT capabilities like TIA. One of the things that we have to keep in mind
is the understanding that MM won't exist in a vacuum. The future world
within which MM will exist will also be a world where MM will facilitate and
be facilitated by advanced AI, macro-robots, intelligent environments,
cybernetics, etc. Within that world, our notions of privacy and liberty,
derived exclusively from Agricultural and Industrial Age circumstances will
have to change. Brin's
Transparent Society is one future concept within which effective
policing might be capable of providing both safety and liberty. There may be
others." |
| |
CRN
thinks Tom's emphasis on police (as opposed to military) as a counter to
terrorism is worth further attention. Most counterterrorism involves
interaction with civilian populations, and police will do that more
sustainably than military (both at home and abroad). |
| Conclusion |
Distributed manufacturing of advanced products will pose several
substantial challenges to traditional police operations.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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