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Current Results of Our Research
These pages, marked with
GREEN headings, are published for
comment and criticism. These
are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change.
LOG OF UPDATES
CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings
Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #11
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #11 |
How
rapidly will the cost of development decrease? |
| |
How long will it
be before development of molecular manufacturing becomes attractive to large
corporations? How long before it can be done in a garage or a developing
nation? How long before it falls off the radar of any reasonable detection
effort? It is crucial that we learn the answers to these questions. |
| Subquestion |
How rapidly
is the cost of computer time falling? How much additional advantage could be
gained by innovative computation (distributed computing, special-purpose
logic, etc.)? |
| Preliminary answer |
In general,
computer costs fall according to Moore's Law. Additionally, new ways of
using existing resources such as distributed computing (SETI@Home)
and massive clusters of cheap computers (Google)
may reduce the cost for big projects. Special-purpose hardware may improve
price/performance by multiple orders of magnitude. |
| Subquestion |
What
software is being developed (commercial as well as Open Source) for physics
simulation, chemical simulation, and CAD? |
| Preliminary answer |
Lots. |
| Subquestion |
How quickly
are sub-nanometer or even sub-angstrom sensing and manipulation technologies
becoming cheap, simple, readily available, and well understood? |
| Preliminary answer |
A group in Russia has developed an SPM with angstrom resolution that
sells for US$30,000. SPMs have been available for over a decade and are not
hard to use. New tools are generally computer-controlled, making it possible
to design intuitive interfaces. The Russian system deserves special
attention because it combines several capabilities that appear targeted at
atomically precise mechanosynthesis: gas flow-through (for deposition); STM
(for imaging and surface modification); and equipment for rapid sample
changing. |
| Subquestion |
How rapidly
is the cost of top-down nanofabrication falling, the resolution shrinking,
and the lag time decreasing? |
| Preliminary answer |
We need more
numbers on cost. Resolution is down to ~50 nm or better for optical litho,
~20 nm for e-beam and two-photon polymerization, ~15 nm for DPN. Some litho
technologies have lag time of hours. |
| Subquestion |
Can the
increasing size, functionality, and programmability of molecules be plotted
or projected? (E.g. dendrimers, precise polymers, nucleic acids) |
| Preliminary answer |
Good question.
Metrics can be developed for assessing recent trends. |
| Subquestion |
How rapidly
are these techniques and capabilities filtering down to postdocs and other
readily available workers? |
| Preliminary answer |
Our impression is
that postdocs can easily learn these technologies. |
| Subquestion |
How rapidly
is the cost of mechanical design, including CAD software, decreasing? |
| Preliminary answer |
To some extent,
this depends on computer power. To some extent, on writing new software,
which will probably remain the same—but probably won't be a significant
expense. To some extent, on creativity, which is very hard to quantify. But
it should be noted how much has been accomplished by just a few unfunded
researchers over the past decade. |
| Conclusion |
Computer and lab resources are becoming rapidly less expensive. The speed
will surprise anyone not familiar with the computer industry. Although it's
hard to quantify, our current estimate (based also on tracking previous
difficulty estimates) is that the cost will decrease exponentially more or
less like the cost of computers: falling by half every two years or so.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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