Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies -
Introduction
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing,
it is urgent to understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been
anything approaching an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series
of thirty essential studies is organized into five sections, covering
fundamental theory, possible technological capabilities, bootstrapping
potential, product capabilities, and policy questions. Several preliminary
conclusions are stated, and because our understanding points to a crisis, a
parallel process of conducting the studies is urged.
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performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
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| Understanding molecular
manufacturing is urgent. |
CRN believes it is
urgent to understand several issues related to
molecular
manufacturing (MM), to prepare for its possible development sometime in
the next decade. The technology will be more transformative than most people
expect, and could develop
too rapidly for
reactive policy to succeed. MM is the result of convergence of many
technologies, and will benefit from synergies between them. It will be more
powerful than most people will be able to comprehend without serious study. |
| |
Molecular
manufacturing, along with other technologies that it will enhance or enable,
will create new problems
and new opportunities
that require new
solutions. To date, there has not been anything approaching an adequate
study of these issues. This series of pages presents some of these issues in
the form of thirty recommended studies. CRN’s preliminary answers are
included to reinforce the relevance and urgency of the investigation. |
| The 30 studies are
organized into five sections. |
The studies are
organized in several sections. The
first section covers the
fundamental theory: insights that may be counterintuitive or unobvious and
need explanation, but that can be double-checked by simple thought. The
second section addresses
technological capabilities of possible molecular manufacturing technologies.
The third section addresses
'bootstrapping'—the development of the first self-contained molecular
manufacturing system (which will then be able to produce duplicates at an
exponential rate), including schedule considerations. The
fourth section explores the
capabilities of products, building toward the
fifth section, which raises
serious questions about policies and policymaking.
|
| CRN's preliminary
conclusions. |
To begin this
iterative process, we have supplied provisional answers to each study, with
supporting data where available. Several preliminary conclusions should be
noted here: |
| |
 | Programmable positional chemistry, with the ability to
fabricate nanocomponents, can be the basis of an extremely powerful
manufacturing technology. The importance of this is substantially
unrecognized. |
| Development of molecular manufacturing may be imminent,
depending on whether any of several actors has begun investigating it
already. We believe that a program started today, even outside the United
States, could finish in under a decade, including development of a
substantial product design capability. |
| Development activity may be very difficult to detect. |
| Several considerations, including economics and product
sophistication, point to MM being a transformative, disruptive,
destabilizing, and potentially dangerous technology. |
| Although the technology may be quite dangerous,
avoidance and prevention are not viable options. Simple attempts to
dominate or control the capability will also be unworkable. |
| MM will also have many productive uses, and policy must
account for the global-scale problems it can solve as well as a possible
high level of civilian demand/utilization. |
| Policymaking and preparation will be complex and
difficult, and will require substantial time.
|
|
| Section
One: |
Technical and
Foundational |
| |
This section
covers the fundamental theory behind molecular nanotechnology manufacturing:
insights that may be counterintuitive or unobvious and need explanation, but
that can be double-checked by simple thought. |
| Study Titles: |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
|
| Section Two: |
Capabilities of
Molecular Manufacturing Technologies |
| |
Molecular
manufacturing (MM) is the use of programmable chemistry to make programmable
products, including duplicate manufacturing systems. Programmability implies
automation, and duplication implies low capital cost. MM may drastically
reduce the cost of both products and manufacturing capacity. In addition,
precise control of chemistry should produce very strong structure and very
compact functionality. High performance products imply high performance
manufacturing. Quantifying these advantages is necessary to understand the
impact and desirability of MM. |
| Study Titles: |
3.
What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
|
| Section
Three: |
Development of
Molecular Manufacturing Technologies |
| |
Molecular
manufacturing does not exist today. This section explores the requirements
of developing a molecular manufacturing technology. |
| Study Titles: |
7.
What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
|
| Section Four: |
Product
Performance |
| |
This section
suggests metrics for manufacturing and product capability. The following
studies should be run for each plausible molecular manufacturing technology.
These questions will be answered for
diamondoid systems based on the
Phoenix nanofactory design. |
| Study Titles: |
13.
What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
|
| Section Five: |
Policies and
Policymaking |
| |
This section
assumes the existence of a general-purpose molecular manufacturing system.
It suggests problems and opportunities raised by molecular manufacturing,
and hints at the difficulties of making policy to deal with them. The
answers in this section, as in the previous section, assume a
diamondoid nanofactory technology. |
| Study Titles: |
17.
Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of molecular manufacturing
does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Work should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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