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Nanotech Scenario Series
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Current Results of Our Research
These pages, marked with
GREEN headings, are published for
comment and criticism. These
are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change.
LOG OF UPDATES
CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings
Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #1
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #1 |
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology? |
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Molecular
manufacturing is based on the idea of using physical manipulation to cause
reliable chemical reactions, building components for products (including
manufacturing systems) from precise molecular fragments. Although several
flavors of this have been demonstrated (including the ribosome), there is
still skepticism in some circles as to whether a self-contained
manufacturing technology can be based on this. |
| Subquestion |
Is there
anything wrong with the basic theory of using programmably controlled
nanoscale actuators and mechanics to do chemistry? |
| Preliminary answer |
To the best of our
knowledge, there is nothing wrong with the theory, and it has been
demonstrated in certain cases: semi-programmable nanoscale ribosomes do
positional chemistry. Nanoscale actuators and mechanical devices exist in a
variety of forms and designs. Sub-angstrom-scale precision adequate to do
reliable chemistry may be achieved by any of several mechanisms. The
question is what families of chemistry are possible. Quite a few have been
proposed. |
| Subquestion |
Can
engineered biomolecules (e.g. DNA) do solution chemistry to synthesize more
biomolecules with low error rates? |
| Preliminary answer |
It may be possible
to 'cap' and 'uncap' the end of a growing DNA strand with an enzyme-like
molecular system, programmable or controllable by any of several signals. By
washing chemicals through in sequence, multiple strands of DNA could be
grown with different programmed patterns. Note this is only one of several
ways to build DNA with desired sequences. |
| Subquestion |
Can diamond
robotics do scanning-probe vacuum chemistry to build diamond with low error
rates? Even at room temperature? |
| Preliminary answer |
Scanning probe
microscopes have already done several kinds of covalent chemistry, with and
without electric currents. Basic theory says that a stiff low-energy
covalent surface should not reconstruct or deform easily, even if one or two
reactive atoms are brought near it; those atoms can then be applied to a
chosen spot on the surface and perform a predictable reaction. |
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It has not been
difficult to find deposition reactions that, in simulation, can be used to
build diamond. These reactions or similar ones will probably work in
practice. |
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According to
Drexler's analysis in
Nanosystems, achieving the necessary precision for diamond synthesis
at room temperature appears to require an overall stiffness between
workpiece and probe of 10 N/m. This assumes that the required precision is
on the order of a bond length, 1.5 Angstrom. Diamond nanoscale components
can probably satisfy this requirement for room-temperature diamond
mechanosynthesis. |
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Freitas and Merkle have studied a dimer deposition reaction on the (110)
diamond face. They found that for this particular tool tip and reaction,
positional accuracy of 0.1 angstrom was required to distinguish between
configurations. If this is the case in general, it may affect the
temperature at which the synthesis can be carried out reliably. Note,
however, that low temperatures are good because they improve the efficiency
of computation. |
| Subquestion |
What other
chemical methods will allow molecular machines to build molecular machine
parts (e.g. turning benzene rings into graphene)? |
| Preliminary answer |
This is an
open-ended question. One possibility, as mentioned in the question, is using
organic chemistry to create graphite-like (graphene or fullerene) shapes and
components. The bigger question is: what simple, programmable,
high-reliability, high-throughput, autoproductive methods are waiting to be
invented? |
| Subquestion |
Will there be
substantial difficulty in automating and scaling up fabrication chemistry or
subsequent assembly of parts? |
| Preliminary answer |
This depends on
many factors: whether the actuation method can easily be controlled in
parallel, whether the chemistry is reliable enough to proceed without error
checking, whether the parts will be easy to grip and manipulate, whether the
parts will stick easily when assembled correctly (and not before), and for
scale-up, whether control and actuation can be implemented in suitable
nanoscale technology. Architecture-level designs and calculations have been
done for diamondoid mechanosynthesis systems*, and they appear to scale
quite well to tabletop systems making integrated decimeter-scale products
and fabricating their own mass in a few hours. |
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* See Drexler,
Nanosystems;
Phoenix, "Design
of a Primitive Nanofactory"; Freitas and Merkle, "Kinematic
Self-Replicating Machines" (this has a new design for a basic
mechanosynthetic fabricator).
|
| Conclusion |
Any of several
types of mechanically guided chemistry appear to be viable technologies for
inexpensive, high-volume molecular manufacturing of complex,
high-performance products.
|
| Other studies |
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
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| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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