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PUBLISHED OCTOBER 2003, REVISED NOVEMBER
2003
Three Systems of Action:
A Proposed Application for Effective
Administration of Molecular Nanotechnology
by
Chris Phoenix
and Mike Treder
Introduction
Within the next few decades, and perhaps sooner, a new type of manufacturing
will be made possible by molecular nanotechnology (MNT). Considering its
enormous potential for profound social, environmental, economic, and military
impacts, MNT has received insufficient attention in ethical and policy
discussions. The first section of this paper provides a brief introduction to
MNT, in order to establish the need for increased policy attention. The
second
section describes three different approaches to policymaking,
each based on a
different system of action, or set of principles, used for solving various kinds
of problems. The
third
section demonstrates that MNT, as a flexible general purpose technology, will
require a flexible approach to policymaking that encompasses all three
systems of action. The fourth section presents specific recommendations and possibilities
for accomplishing this difficult balance between incompatible policy styles.
MOLECULAR NANOTECHNOLOGY
“The principles of physics, as far as I can see, do not
speak against the possibility of maneuvering things atom by atom. It is not an
attempt to violate any laws; it is something, in principle, that can be done;
but in practice, it has not been done because we are too big.”1 With these words,
in 1959, Nobel Prize winning physicist Richard Feynman introduced the concepts
that would eventually be known as nanotechnology.
Nanotechnology has several meanings and covers many diverse fields. The U.S.
National Science Foundation defines it as: “Research and technology development
at the atomic, molecular or macromolecular levels, in the length scale of
approximately 1 - 100 nanometer range, to provide a fundamental understanding of
phenomena and materials at the nanoscale and to create and use structures,
devices and systems that have novel properties and functions because of their
small and/or intermediate size.”2 By this definition, some kinds of
nanotechnology exist already. Computer manufacturers are exploring new types of
circuits built with individual molecules, and other technologies too numerous to
list are being developed or already in use. Current products of nanoscale
technology include powders, films, and chemicals. Computer parts and sensors may
be only a few years away. But this type of nanotechnology simply produces
specialized materials and components, one innovation at a time. Nanoscale
technology is not general purpose.
Molecular nanotechnology (MNT) is different. The field was initially defined by
popular and even fictional portrayals. Often misunderstood or overlooked in
discussions of nanotechnology, it is nevertheless a field of active and serious
study. [See
APPENDIX] Starting with the publication of
Nanosystems by Eric Drexler in 1992, a
coherent and reliable picture has been built over the last decade of a
plausible—and possibly imminent—manufacturing system: a limited molecular
nanotechnology (LMNT) based on programmable, mechanically guided carbon-lattice
chemistry workstations. Such a manufacturing system could make a wide variety of
functional molecular shapes, large enough to have stable properties but small
enough to make dinosaurs out of today's cutting-edge products.
From the beginning, MNT was claimed to be dangerously transformative. It was
forewarned that once a general purpose nanoscale manufacturing capability was
developed, a flood of diverse and powerful products would appear almost
overnight. Distributed, cheap, clean manufacturing would upset many aspects of
the economy. Manufacturing systems would be able to duplicate themselves
speedily, leading to extremely low capital costs. Such claims seemed fantastic,
and this perception has perhaps contributed to the poor reputation of the field.
However, work over the past decade has made it clear that many of the initial
warnings were justified.
Advances in conventional manufacturing are happening continually: parts are
getting smaller and more precise, robots are doing more of the fabrication and
assembly, inventories are shrinking while speed increases, and industrial
processes are producing less waste. The natural destination of these trends is a
completely automated manufacturing system that can rapidly build products with
atomic precision directly from raw materials, while making use of every
molecule. In the normal course of innovation, this might take many decades or
even centuries to achieve. However, MNT appears to provide a shortcut: by mixing
digital control with chemistry, a mechanochemical system could do for
manufacturing what computers have done for information processing.
In studying the social impacts of MNT, it is important to know when it might be
developed. If it were to be delayed by many decades, its capabilities would not
be revolutionary. There is good reason to believe, however, that it could be
developed much sooner—possibly within a single decade.3 This would be cause for
grave concern. Certainly, improved manufacturing is desirable for a wide variety
of reasons. But it’s also true that MNT—even in its limited form—would be able
to create products so advanced as to destabilize many social and political
institutions. Given the immense power and resources that an LMNT capability
would provide, we cannot afford to merely hope that no nation will realize this
for the next thirty years; we must assume that somewhere in the world an LMNT
development project will be started as soon as the cost falls within a large
nation's budget.
The barriers to an LMNT project may already be surprisingly low.
Mechanochemistry has been demonstrated on a silicon lattice. New nanoscale
sensing and manipulation technologies are being developed at a rapid pace. The
main technical barriers are the lack of a detailed design, and the need for a
better understanding of the laboratory techniques required to build the first
molecular fabricator. Both of these problems should be solvable with sufficient
resources. In the bigger picture, the main institutional barrier is a widespread
belief that MNT is not worth pursuing at this time. Even if this belief does not
shift soon in the United States or Europe, other nations may be quicker to
recognize the potential and more politically able to fund an LMNT program.
Recent work by the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology has demonstrated that
development of even a primitive mechanochemical fabrication ability could be
followed rapidly by development of an integrated, automated, self-contained,
human-scale factory.4 Such a sudden increase in advanced manufacturing capability
could have substantial military as well as economic advantages for the nation or
bloc that controls it. This greatly increases the incentive for rapid and early
development of MNT.
A full exploration of the possible societal impacts of nanotechnology is beyond
the scope of this paper. But regardless of the form they take, it seems certain
that these impacts will be extensive. Our purpose here is to examine the types
of institutions that will best be suited for administering
MNT, to avoid the dangers and maximize the benefits.
THREE SYSTEMS OF ACTION
Consider this question: “How much should a corporation pay
for the right to kill someone?” The question is appalling. Obviously
corporations have no right to kill anyone, under any circumstances. Yet other
institutions in our society sometimes do have that right. A policeman has every
right to kill a criminal who is trying to kill him. And yet, the question, “How
much should a policeman pay for the right to kill someone?” is also appalling.
The words “pay” and “kill” simply don't belong together—except in the Mafia. An
institutional system that involves the ability to kill people should not also
involve money.
As the example
above demonstrates, there are some groups whose conduct includes the use of
force, and other groups that engage in trade—but a single group that deals in
both can be very dangerous. This section explores the systems of action of these
two types of groups, and the principles that make up those systems. We also
introduce a third system that involves neither force nor trade, but information.
Guardian Principles: Provide Security
Think of a fortress guarding a frontier. The soldiers must always be prepared
to fight, but most of the time they are training or relaxing. Strict discipline
is necessary to make them a unified fighting force. One traitor, or paid spy,
can get them all killed. Visiting merchants are a distraction and a security
problem; too much money floating around can weaken their dedication to the task.
Guardian principles are appropriate for governments and police forces, organizations
that defend laws and land. In such a group, betrayal can cause disaster; force
is frequently necessary; tradition is valuable; and loyalty is more important
than money (see Table 1).
If someone steals your car, they have one more car and you have one less. The
thief has created no value—in fact, once the car goes to the chop shop, value is
destroyed. When one nation forcibly annexes the territory of another nation, one
government gains and another government loses. These are examples of zero-sum or
even negative-sum transactions. Guardian principles are well suited to organizations
dealing with
zero-sum situations. In Systems of Survival 5,
Jane Jacobs has
analyzed Guardian organizations (as well as Commercial organizations, described
in the next section).
According to Jacobs, Guardian principles (which she terms ethics) include
“Deceive for the sake of the task”, “Take vengeance”, and “Shun trading”—all
good advice for a group surrounded by enemies. However, these principles would
not work well for a commercial organization.
Commercial Principles: Optimize Trade
Think of a small neighborhood shop. The employees should be ready to do
business with anyone who walks in, and must maintain a reputation of honesty
with both suppliers and customers. The store must continually improve, or the
other stores will lure away its customers. A small business owner does not have
a lot of free time and must work efficiently.
Commercial principles are appropriate for business and trade, which seek to increase
value to all parties involved. Money is the lifeblood of commerce. Innovation
and efficiency are more useful than tradition, and the use of force is severely
frowned on.
If one person has a surplus of wheat, and another has a surplus of eggs, they
will both be better off if they trade. This is a positive-sum transaction, and
the creation of value is what drives commerce. Commercial
principles include, “Be
honest”, “Be thrifty”, “Compete”, and “Respect contracts”. The more closely a
commercial organization follows these ideals, the more trading it can engage in
and the richer it will become. Commercial
principles also include, “Shun force”.
This is good advice for companies that must focus on competing in the
marketplace; coercion is not a good way to build productive trading
relationships.
Information Principles: Promote Abundance
Think of a programmer working at 2:00 AM to add a feature to an Open Source
program he didn't write. The programmer is not paid for this work; he does it
because he wants the program to be more usable and more popular; he has been
working for six hours without a break. At 2:30 AM he adds his name to the list
of contributors, uploads the improved program to a website for free
distribution, then spends the next hour reading free articles on-line.
We have said that Guardian
principles are best for dealing with
zero-sum or negative-sum situations, and Commercial
principles are best for dealing
with positive-sum situations. The invention of computers has created
unlimited-sum situations. An unlimited-sum situation is one in which the cost of
an event is both very low (“too cheap to meter”)6 and unrelated to the value.
Anything that exists in the form of computer data can be copied and distributed
at remarkably low cost. And a wide range of things—including music, news,
blueprints, books, recipes, and scientific papers—can be represented as computer
data. Of course, some things are valuable only because they are rare, so too
much copying would actually reduce their value. But some information becomes
more valuable to its creators the more it is copied. Many hobbyists would like
their creations to be widely appreciated—as long as the viewer knew who had
created it. The authors of scientific papers and the programmers of Open Source7
software want as many people as possible to use their work—as long as they get
appropriate credit. The more such information is copied, the more benefits
accrue both to the inventor and to the users.
The Information
system has arisen to facilitate the production and copying of freely shared
information. This system of action is related to the
so-called “hacker ethic” and to the older system of academic endeavor.
Table 1: Comparison of Systems8
Information |
Commercial |
Guardian |
Shun force |
Shun force |
[Rely on force] |
Shun trading |
[Rely on trading] |
Shun trading |
Use intelligence |
Use initiative and
enterprise |
Exert prowess |
Publish all information |
Be honest |
Deceive for the sake of
the task |
Be idealistic |
Be optimistic |
Be fatalistic |
Ignore comfort |
Promote comfort and
convenience |
Make rich use of leisure |
Respect authorship;
Ignore ownership |
Respect contracts |
[Defend your
territory] |
Demonstrate the
superiority of your own ideal |
Dissent for the sake of
the task |
Be obedient and
disciplined |
Invent and create |
Be open to inventiveness
and novelty |
Adhere to tradition |
Shun authority |
[Adapt to the system] |
Respect hierarchy |
Collaborate easily with
strangers and aliens |
Collaborate easily with
strangers and aliens |
Be exclusive |
Accept largesse |
Be thrifty |
Dispense largesse |
Be unique; Develop a
reputation |
Be industrious |
Be ostentatious |
Be productive |
Invest for productive
purposes |
Take vengeance |
Rise of the Information System
The invention of writing allowed information to be
stored for later use, and even copied verbatim. The printing press made the
copying process much easier, giving many more people access to the information.
Computers, with networks and word processors, have reached another level.9 The
cost of copying most information is now essentially zero. Using computers, a
person can write a book, email it to friends and colleagues, and put it on a
website for the whole world to see. The same can be done for recipes, music, and
drawings. With training, that person could even write a better word processing
program so that friends—or the whole world—will find it easier to write books.
There are programs to help write that word processing program, and there are
people working to improve those programs. The whole system can be improved
exponentially, as long as people are willing to “give away” their work. It may
seem strange at first, but many people will do just that.
Numerous organizations have developed to create, promote, distribute, and use
information that is freely copyable. A computer operating system called Linux10,
a competitor to Microsoft Windows, is a good example of this. Linux is perhaps
the most famous product of the Open Source software movement. It has no owner in
the traditional sense: anyone who wants to can obtain a copy for free and use it
on as many computers as they like.11 The creators of Linux—thousands of
programmers worldwide—are quite happy with this state of affairs. They do not
want to sell the software; they simply want their name to be included in the
credits. As more people use it, the authors gain bragging rights among their
fellow programmers, and they also know that they have made the world a better
place by saving money for each user. Microsoft operating systems cost hundreds
of dollars. The Linux operating system is absolutely free. Thousands of Linux
programmers work without pay to make this possible.
If this mindset sounds implausible, consider this story of how it actually
worked. A hacker (originally the word meant simply a good programmer) named
Peter Samson wrote a program to make primitive computers play music—and then
gave it away. “Samson proudly presented the music compiler to DEC to distribute
to anyone who wanted it. He was proud that other people would be using his
program. The team that worked on the new assembler felt likewise. .... They felt
honored when DEC asked for the program so it could offer it to other PDP-1
owners. .... As for royalties, wasn't software more like a gift to the world,
something that was reward in itself? The idea was to make a computer more
usable, to make it more exciting to users... When you wrote a fine program you
were building a community, not churning out a product.”12
In a system where information can be copied perfectly at low cost, it is
tempting to treat all information that way. Steven Levy asserts that the
experience of working with an early computer at MIT led to the “hacker ethic”,
one tenet of which was, “All information should be free.” More recently, this
has mutated into the slogan, “Information wants to be free.” In a sense, this is
true: some kinds of information are designed to entice us to copy them.
Songwriters try to make their tunes “catchy”. Programmers try to make their
programs useful. The most successful information almost seems to “want” people
to copy it.13
A backlash has been building against the free copying of information, with
Digital Rights Management,14 the Digital Millennium Copyright Act15
(in the U.S.),
and network snooping and lawsuits aiming to curtail most illegal copying—and
some legal copying as well. Although there are some partnerships between
Commercial and Information entities (such as between the Red Hat software
company and the Linux project), there are many problems yet to be resolved
before Information principles can find its proper place in society. Molecular
nanotechnology will exacerbate these problems, by making Information actions
relevant not only to information but to physical products. Additionally, the
sudden advances in manufacturing and product capability will create substantial
security issues, possibly equivalent to or even greater than nuclear weapons,
and economic changes comparable to the Industrial Revolution but far more rapid.
Better methods of inter-group
collaboration will need to be developed, and
quickly.
Interactions Between the Three Systems of
Action
Trust is important in commerce, even between competing companies; by contrast,
competing Guardian organizations frequently are enemies and cannot afford to
trust each other. It is obvious that the
principles of these organizations are
different: buying products is appropriate, while buying pardons is not. What is
less obvious at first is that these systems are actually incompatible. Many
centuries of development have created distinct traditions and expectations for
each kind of task. There are strong reasons why
sets of principles should not be
mixed, and why each system should be applied only to the tasks it is suited for.
History has shown what happens when this advice is ignored: as discussed below,
the failure of the Soviet economy is one example.
Guardian and Commercial systems have learned to coexist, and even to benefit
each other. A healthy flow of commerce needs Guardian organizations to minimize
the problems of theft, fraud, and piracy. Guardian organizations don't actually
need Commercial organizations, but without commerce the system reverts to
something like feudalism: warlords fighting to maintain and extend their land,
and peasants engaged in heavily-taxed zero-sum farming when they're not being
drafted for cannon fodder. Without organized force, trade and wealth are
impossible; without commerce, society stagnates. However, it is very important
that the two
systems of action be embodied in different organizations.
As Jacobs
points out, when government takes control of commerce, the problems of Soviet Communism may
arise: severe lack of competition, innovation, and incentive. When commerce
takes control of government, the result may reflect the worst abuses of
notorious “company towns”, where workers can become indistinguishable from
slaves. It is also likely that consumers will suffer from higher prices,
unchecked deception, and lack of competition. If the systems are mixed,
you might get something like the Mafia: engaged in both commerce and force,
willing to destroy in order to advance its goals, with no financial checks and
balances on its financial activities and few legal checks on its forcible
(criminal) activities. Another common result of mixing
principles is a government
where everything is for sale—you can literally get away with murder if you know
whom to bribe.
This understanding provides a broad foundation for public policy. To solve
problems related to the minimizing of harm (theft, invasion), an organization following
the Guardian system is best. To solve problems related to maximizing wealth
(trade, invention), an organization with Commercial principles is preferable. And an
organization that mixes the two systems—for example, one that makes laws but is
subject to financial influence—is likely to be dangerous, or at least
counterproductive. It's also worth noting that a large Commercial monopoly may
take on Guardian characteristics—using deceptive or unfair business practices,
threatening legal action to harm competitors, and buying favorable laws. If the
government is willing to be bought, consumers and citizens will have no
protection and unethical conditions will multiply. “Free market” must not be
implemented to the extent that Commercial entities are allowed to engage in
Guardian behavior.
As the copying of information becomes cheaper, Information
principles and
actions become
increasingly significant. When thousands of copies can be made at negligible
cost, the concept of ownership becomes fuzzy and leads to ethical problems.
Almost everyone would agree that the purchaser of a music CD has every right to
copy the tunes to her computer and listen at her desk (note that U.S. copyright
law contains a concept of “space-shifting”16). But should that person be able to
copy “her” tunes to her friend's computer and let him listen as well? If so,
then what's wrong with putting the tunes in a file-sharing network like Napster
so that everyone can enjoy them? At some point, the
principle of free copying
collides with the
principle of commercial rights. Napster was shut down after a
lengthy legal battle. Despite the wishes of many computer programmers,
hobbyists, and users of information, the new Information
system cannot take over
the world. But it can, and should, lead to cheaper or even free access to some
forms of information. The ongoing struggle between the Recording Industry
Association of America (RIAA) and music sharers is evidence that policy issues
have not been satisfactorily resolved.17
The Danger of Monstrous Hybrids
One of the most important concepts in Jacobs' theory is that of “Monstrous moral
hybrids”, which are created when an organization tries to adopt inappropriate principles,
or systems of action. A government that took bribes would certainly qualify, as would a
government that tried to regulate all commerce by force and central planning.
Both problems arise from a Guardian entity involving itself too much with money.
Even a subtle
mixture can have distinctly bad effects. Jacobs gives the
example of a police department that tried to make itself more efficient by
giving bonuses to police officers for making arrests. Note that “Be efficient”
is a Commercial and not a Guardian
principle, and Guardians are supposed to “Shun
trading.” The result was predictable in hindsight: many false arrests were made
in order to get the bonuses. The Mafia engages in trade and force both, using
loyalty, greed, and coercion as motivators. Most people outside of the Mafia
would agree that it is monstrous.
Applying a
consistent system of action to the wrong situation can be as bad as mixing and
matching principles for convenience. Commerce stagnates if it is
centrally regulated; conversely, mercenaries do not make trustworthy or
effective soldiers. Information
principles, when applied to other people's private
property, result in actions that are indistinguishable from theft. Organizations
should not try to extend their influence to situations that fall outside their
ability to address
appropriately. Table 2 gives some indication of which kinds
of issues are best addressed by which systems.
Table 2:
Characteristics of Systems
|
Information |
Commercial |
Guardian |
Transaction Benefit |
Unlimited Sum |
Positive Sum |
Zero Sum |
Planning Horizon |
Months |
Years |
Decades |
Openness |
Very Open |
Semi-open |
Secretive |
Cautiousness |
Low |
Medium |
High |
Use of Force |
Unthinkable |
Deprecated |
Common |
Goals |
Freedom |
Profit |
Safety |
Personal Identity |
Actions, Skills |
Possessions |
Affiliations |
Organizational Structure |
Collaboration |
Loose Hierarchy |
Strict Hierarchy |
A corollary of the dictum that
systems of action must not
be mixed is that no single organization should be expected to solve all
problems. We should not expect a government to give non-citizens the same
privileges as citizens. A corporation should not be expected to do business with
people who have no money. Information creators should not be expected to decide
whether or how to restrict their work or the information they produce. This is
probably unwelcome news; it is strongly tempting to make any powerful
organization responsible for anything it touches. However, to do this would
create unhealthy, inefficient, or even tragic situations: e.g., a state forced
to violate its own security; a corporation forced to waste money; a creator
prevented from creating. To force an organization to adopt alien
principles (or to
solve alien problems) is to force it to act unethically. Unfortunately, this
means that many organizations will create problems that they are not equipped to
solve, and almost all organizations will confront problems that they cannot
address.
Since any single organization can only deal with a fraction of the possible
problems, the solution is to have organizations of each type working together,
keeping each other in check, and letting solutions to problems emerge from their
interaction. Governments and commercial entities have had many centuries to
learn how to work together. Information
principles are somewhat newer, since they
only became widespread with the availability of cheap computers and the
Internet.
The Internet investing bubble of the 1990’s, typified by the phrase
“Information Economy”, is a clear result of attempting to mix two
systems of action. Companies that tried to make money via the Internet in the Information
Economy were doomed from the start. One after another, they found that they
could get a large number of users as long as the “customers” were not paying
them any money; the customer base grew exponentially, as might be expected in an
unlimited-sum system. Yet when the companies began charging fees, most of the
users went elsewhere. We may suspect that many of these users felt that charging
fees for what had been a free service was unethical. In terms of Information
principles, it is in fact improper to charge fees. The companies that succeeded,
such as Amazon.com, were the ones that offered a traditional Commercial service,
using the vast potential of the Internet simply as a communication channel.
The Open Source movement illustrates the potential for all three systems to work
together productively. Open Source was inspired by the Free Software movement,
which is militantly dedicated to purely Information
principles; for example, the
Free Software Foundation does not approve of distributing free software together
with non-free software.18 Open Source, by contrast, welcomes the collaboration of
Commercial (non-free) software manufacturers. Some companies, such as Red Hat,
make money by selling and supporting Open Source software. The Open Source
licenses, which keep the software from being hijacked by commercial interests,
make use of copyright law, so that Open Source and Free Software rely on our
Guardian legal system for protection just as much as any Commercial entity does.
Molecular nanotechnology will make it possible to manufacture or copy physical
objects almost as easily and cheaply as data is produced and copied now. This
will provide a broader domain for the advantages of unlimited-sum transactions,
but will also pose additional problems and tangible dangers. An
understanding of all three
systems of action
will help in policy-making,
administering the new technologies to maximize the benefits while minimizing the
problems.
POLICY ISSUES OF MOLECULAR NANOTECHNOLOGY
Advanced nanotechnology will present a wide range of
problems and opportunities: not just diverse issues, but different kinds of
issues. Many of these issues have arisen already, with older technologies and
institutions. The anticipated impacts of nanotechnology are so extensive that
some analysts19 classify it as a general purpose technology (GPT). A GPT offers
transformative applications across a wide spectrum of industries, and can have
massive economic and social implications. Previous examples include steam
engines, railways, internal combustion engines, electricity, telecommunications,
and computers.20
Some of the issues raised by molecular nanotechnology are new and unfamiliar,
and even the old issues take on new urgency when they occur in new combinations.
The promise of MNT is material abundance and rapid improvement of technology at
low cost and high convenience.21 The threat of MNT is the potential of developing
and fabricating dangerous weapons and other undesirables covertly or in large
quantity.22 To minimize the threat while maximizing the benefit will require the
cooperation of many organizations of several distinct types.
Reducing the Risks of Nanotechnology: Guardian Principles
In 2002, researchers used DNA purchased over the Internet to build fully
infectious poliovirus.23 MNT-based rapid-prototyping or manufacturing capability,
whether available in the home or by mail order, would be able to build things
far more intricate and functional than a simple virus. Nanometer-scale computer
circuitry will probably be one of the first products; this enables all sorts of
computing, communication, and surveillance devices. If the technology is based
on biochemistry, then medicines, drugs, and poisons may be available; indeed, a
wide range of custom-designed chemicals. If the technology is based on rigid
machine parts, then a wide range of shapes and manipulations will be possible;
it has already been demonstrated that a cavity in plastic can act as a
“binding site” to trap chemicals,24 so even a purely mechanical nanotechnology
should be able to interact with biochemical systems to some extent.
Today's supercomputers can be used for tasks of military significance, such as
simulating nuclear explosions and cracking codes. In fact, sufficiently powerful
computers are considered a munition (armament), and their export is controlled.
Certain software, including some common encryption software, is also considered
a munition. But the supercomputers of today are the desktop computers of
tomorrow and the palmtops of the day after, and nanotechnology will certainly
allow the building of computers that are immensely powerful by today's
standards. These computers may be integrated with devices of varying degrees of
sophistication; for example, a near-magical surveillance technology could be
packaged into a device too small to see. Even the mundane types of
nanotechnology may need to be controlled.
The more exotic suggestions, such as “grey goo”,25
can get quite scary. Grey goo
is a kind of nanodevice that takes in biomass and turns it into copies of the
grey goo device. In theory, if such a device were not countered, it could “eat”
the biosphere. Fortunately, the design of such a device would be quite
difficult, and devices of the grey goo class would have no commercial or even
military use, since more specialized non-replicating devices would be far more
efficient. It is thus highly unlikely that anyone would build a grey goo, or
device that could run amok and become grey goo, by accident, and military or
commercial organizations would have little interest in building such a thing on
purpose. However, the prevalence of computer worms and viruses indicates that
some people do build things like this for fun.
If approached with pessimism, MNT appears far too dangerous to be allowed to
develop to anywhere near its full potential. However, a naive approach to
limiting R&D, such as “relinquishment”,26 is flawed for at least two reasons.
First, it will almost certainly be impossible to prevent the development of MNT
somewhere in the world. China, Japan, and other Asian nations have thriving
nanotechnology programs, and the rapid advance of “enabling technologies” such
as biotechnology, MEMS, and scanning-probe microscopy (SPM) ensures that R&D
efforts will be far easier in the near future than they are today. Second, MNT
will provide benefits that are simply too good to pass up, including
environmental repair; clean, cheap, and efficient manufacturing; medical
breakthroughs; immensely powerful computers; and easier access to space.
If the spread of molecular manufacturing ability cannot be prevented, then the
resulting problems must be dealt with piecemeal. Some sort of watch will have to
be kept, on an ongoing basis, to reduce the number of criminals, terrorists, and
hobbyists building dangerous nanodevices, and to clean up problems when they do
occur. A deployment of nasty stuff such as “time bomb dust” or “grey goo” might
have to be dealt with quickly, forcefully, and invasively. A nanotech-focused
police organization would need broad powers to exert force on random people or
property. It is crucial that such an organization be incorruptible. Several of
the Guardian principles, such as “Shun trading” and “Be exclusive”, work to minimize
corruption. Others, such as “Exert prowess”, “Take vengeance”, and “Deceive for
the sake of the task”, are uncomfortable to many people but probably necessary.
One might think that a Guardian organization would need to adapt and change
swiftly when facing a new and rapidly improving technology. However, there is a
good reason why Guardian
principles include “Adhere to tradition” and “Be
fatalistic.” An organization that allows itself to change too quickly may lose
focus. In addition, if the Guardians are too quick to try new things, they may
create cures worse than the diseases. This is one of several reasons why a
Guardian-only solution cannot work. Instead, the Guardians must be willing to
allow a broad range of innovation, carried out by more than one type of
organization, and then adapt the most suitable technologies to do their own
work.
Nanotechnology for Profit: Commercial Principles
“Be thrifty. Be optimistic. Be efficient. Be industrious. Be honest.” These are
a few of the Commercial
principles (see
Table 1). Commercial organizations
will work very hard to give people what they want—or what they will pay for,
which often is the same thing. If a product needs to be developed to satisfy a
market, some company somewhere is probably working on it. Money can be a great
incentive.
Commercial organizations must compete, but they are not allowed to use
force—that is reserved for Guardian organizations. So they try to make their
products better, and sell them to more people. They are willing to invest in
developing products, and making them easier to use, and making consumers aware
of them. They are accustomed to collaborating and innovating, and to making and
keeping contracts. Molecular nanotechnology will enable the creation of many new
technologies and products, many of them quite specialized and quite useful. The
development of all of this potential—not to mention the development of basic
LMNT capabilities—requires an incentive, and Commercial organizations will use
the incentive of money to bring the benefits of molecular manufacturing to a
wide swath of the population.
In fact, the advantages of capitalism are so well established that it would be
redundant to spend more time on them here. We will, however, mention some
limitations. Motivated by money, corporations do not tend to consider factors
that cannot be quantified. Some industries are notorious for creating
environmental or health problems, simply because it is more profitable to do so
than to pursue alternatives. In addition, money tends to flow where it can
achieve a quick return on investment; venture capitalists won't invest in a
project that takes longer than a few years to reach fruition. Long-term
benefits, like hidden costs, are largely ignored by the Commercial mindset.
This is not bad; it simply means that Commercial entities cannot be the sole
decision-makers. Some opportunities would be missed due to long development
cycles or unwillingness to do “pure research”, and some problems would be
created that, even if they were acknowledged, would not be avoided due to
institutionalized short-sightedness.
Another limitation of
the Commercial
system is that there is no obligation toward
people who can't afford to pay for a product or service that they need. Again,
this is not bad, as long as there are non-commercial organizations that can take
up the slack. A purely philanthropic, altruistic, for-profit corporation is a
contradiction in terms—it would become ineffective through making unprofitable
choices. What this means is that commercial organizations should do what they do
best, developing and selling products with a relatively short planning horizon,
but they should not claim ownership of everything. A society based entirely on
Commercial principles would have many people literally starving in the streets, and
most of us would not want to live there. The solution is not to nationalize
commercial entities. Societies that tried that saw their economies stagnate or
implode. The solution is to maintain thriving commercial entities that care only
about the bottom line, in balance with other entities using other
principles.
Fortunately, molecular nanotechnology—even in its early, limited form—will allow the
creation of vast amounts of non-commercial, widely distributable wealth.
Unlimited Benefits of Nanotechnology: Information Principles
It may be only a matter of time until the manufacture of products becomes as
cheap as the copying of files. Molecular nanotechnology will help this process
along, because the first practical self-duplicating factory will almost
certainly be designed on the nanometer scale. A tabletop model might weigh a
kilogram. The amount of raw materials required to produce a new factory might
cost only a few dollars or Euros, and a well-designed factory could process
that much material in an hour or so. Once one such factory exists, it and its
copies can be used to make an unlimited number of tabletop factories, cheap
enough to give away. Building a new product would be as simple as emailing its
blueprint to the factory—which might be sitting beside your computer.
If personal nanofactories were ubiquitous, then their products would be readily
available. The only limits would be raw materials—which would be completely
renewable—and licensing fees for the products. If a product design were created
and given away, as Linux is given away, anyone who wanted or needed one could
have it. Any product that could alleviate poverty or suffering might be
instantly available to everyone. As soon as a need was recognized, designers and
programmers would be motivated by the desire to gain reputation through filling
the need and by the knowledge that their work could improve the lives of
millions of people.
This would only be possible, however, if nanofactories were not restricted to
prevent the making of free products. Commercial entities, of course, would have
a strong interest in preventing competition from products that people didn't pay
for. And Guardian entities would be sweating over the malicious ways that an
unrestricted factory might be used. A completely unrestricted factory looks like
a bad idea for several reasons, including intellectual property violations and
dangerous products. A tightly controlled factory is a bad idea for at least
three reasons: heavy restrictions would prevent the alleviation of vast amounts
of human suffering, would hinder the creation of an undreamed-of level of
prosperity, and would also make a black market inevitable. Some sort of
compromise must be reached.
There are two ways to exert control over nanofactory manufacturing. One way is
to maintain tight limits on distribution of personal nanofactories and/or access to
usage, which is inadvisable for several reasons, as we have seen. Another option
is tight built-in technical restrictions on individual nanofactories.27 Preventing
a nanofactory from building unapproved products likely could be done using
technologies already in use today. In fact, it appears that the nanofactory
control structure could be made virtually unbreakable. This does not mean that
implementing technical controls on production necessarily will be easy. A great
deal of work must be done to develop an effective strategy for product
certification.
Table 3 illustrates four separate options of combining controlled or open
distribution with restricted or unrestricted nanofactory design. Use of a
restricted nanofactory design combined with widespread deployment and ample
access appears to be the best solution.
Table 3: Matrix of
Nanofactory Control Options
|
Distribution & Access |
TIGHT |
LOOSE |
Technical Restrictions |
LOOSE |
·
Intellectual property
violations
·
Manufacture of dangerous
products
·
Makes black market
inevitable |
·
Intellectual property
violations
·
Manufacture of dangerous
products
·
Removes incentive for
black market |
TIGHT |
·
Prevents alleviation of
human suffering
·
Hinders creation of
prosperity
·
Makes black market
inevitable |
·
Allows alleviation of
human suffering
·
Fosters creation of
unprecedented prosperity
·
Reduces incentive for
black market |
A
SPECIFIC PROPOSAL
Nanofactories as Infrastructure
The Internet was originally created by a governmental agency.28
As it grew, it was supported by funding and technology from many sources,
including Guardian (government), Commercial (corporate web sites and private
users paying ISPs), and Information (hobbyist programmers, responsible among
other things for creating the Internet Protocol). The Internet is an
infrastructure, usable by any group. A comparable molecular manufacturing
infrastructure could provide a project to which all three types of groups could
contribute. Guardians could regulate usage, Commerce could charge tolls, and
Information groups could enhance both the infrastructure and the products
available through it.
As explained above, a tabletop personal nanofactory appears to be quite feasible even
with limited molecular nanotechnology. Such a factory could form the core of a
molecular manufacturing infrastructure. Depending on the cost of the factory, it
could either be available in service bureaus or in individual homes. It would be
able to produce an immense range of incredibly useful products at very low cost.
The benefits to society would be almost incalculable: the financial and
environmental costs of manufacturing and transportation would be greatly
reduced, and new products would be available far more quickly, customized for
each user.
Once personal nanofactories can be built, people will demand access to them. If
legitimate access is not provided, some of the “have-nots” will obtain black
market devices of comparable functionality. Such devices would presumably be
uncontrolled, thwarting any attempt to regulate, tax, or charge royalties on
products they produce. Since a small nanofactory can make a bigger one, and a
large one can make thousands of duplicates, smuggling would be impossible to
prevent.
To minimize the black market, it is in the interests of both Guardian and
Commercial organizations to supply nanofactories, as capable and flexible as
possible, to the entire global population. This flexibility must include the
ability to build certain products with minimal royalties or taxes—preferably
zero added cost, because anything else would only encourage illicit factories.
Of course, the factories cannot be completely unrestricted. Certain weapons,
substances, and dangerous nanobots should be prohibited or restricted, and all
commercial intellectual property should be controlled according to the wishes of
the owner. However, aside from these limitations, Information system workers
should be given free rein to design and give away any product. This will greatly
reduce the pressure for illicit factories.
Free availability of freely designed products will not eliminate commercial
value; “Promote comfort and convenience” is a Commercial
principle, but not an
Information principle. We see this in practice—it is well known that Linux is more
difficult for the average user than commercial operating systems. Products of
the Information school are likely to be highly functional, but not especially
easy to use or stylish. Still, the activities of Information-producing groups
will fill needs that the Commercial groups will fail to fill. They will also
serve as a source of innovation that will be usable by both Commercial and
Guardian groups, which will certainly have their hands full trying to keep up
with the rapidly advancing technology.
No matter who designs the products, whether it’s Commercial or Information
workers, a certain amount of regulation by Guardian entities will be necessary.
Some classes of products, of course, will not require much scrutiny. But even
the simplest medical and hygiene products will benefit greatly from MNT and will
need to be studied carefully to ensure their safety. Government regulatory
bodies such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and private
organizations such as Underwriters Laboratories (UL) have been performing this
function for conventional products.
The creation of a worldwide network of restricted nanofactories appears to
maximize the benefits of molecular nanotechnology while providing opportunities
to minimize the risks. Guardian/regulatory, Commercial, and Information/creative
organizations all will be able to pursue their goals through this
infrastructure, which will provide substantial benefits to local, national, and
global societies while short-circuiting many illicit uses of molecular
manufacturing.
Naturally, there will be significant conflicts between groups embodying the
three systems of
action. People from the Information tradition will be unhappy
with regulation (“Shun authority” is one of their
principles), and may become
frustrated with necessary limitations and try to obtain (or create) unauthorized
factories. The Commercial tradition will want to maximize income-generating
ability, so will try to resist or even subvert both regulation and free
products. The Guardians will want to exert control over potentially dangerous
technologies, even to the extent of crippling commerce and innovation. In the
normal course of things, these conflicts could take decades to resolve
naturally. The rapid progress of MNT, however, may not allow that much leeway.
We believe that a carefully designed decision-making structure will be necessary
in advance.
There is some basis for hope. Researchers running experiments on human subjects
in the U.S. have been required for several decades to submit their experimental
plans to an “Institutional Review Board”,29
and researchers in other sensitive fields such as genetically modified bacteria
face similar restrictions. Designing a functional product to be made by
molecular manufacturing may require significant training, and the training
period perhaps could be used to create a culture of responsibility. Commercial
and Guardian systems have a history of cooperation and balance which may
stabilize their conflicts as they address a technology with such large military
and commercial potential. Now is the time to begin designing the procedures,
organizations, and technologies that will be required to make this
transformative infrastructure a success.
MNT Administration: A Balance of Power
As we have seen, molecular nanotechnology will present a large range of new
problems and new opportunities—and no single organization will be capable of
addressing all of these issues.
Commercial institutions cannot adequately address either the security or the
abundance issues of cheap distributed molecular manufacturing. If no institution
takes responsibility for forcibly preventing the worst abuses of the new
technology, commercial liability will act to reduce the risks of any given
design, and this may prevent disaster for a while. But as MNT becomes more
accessible, more pervasive, and more powerful, the possible dangers will grow
beyond any ability to financially underwrite the risk, and businesses will be
institutionally unable to address them appropriately. Likewise, if all
information is owned as “intellectual property” and no institution is allowed to
distribute MNT-related information and products freely, clandestine and foreign
institutions will spring up to meet the demand, creating a massive exchange of
“pirate” designs and a security liability. Neither of the other systems can do
the job alone either. A Guardian institution cannot administer an adequately
efficient market, and a black market is the inevitable result. An Information
system, dedicated to the free spread of resources, will be completely unable to
plan and implement security.
In summary, Commercial and Information groups cannot be trusted to take
appropriate precautions in every case, so a Guardian approach is sometimes
necessary. Likewise, because Guardian and Information principles do not create
money, Commercial organizations must be involved to pay for large parts of the
development and deployment of the technology. Finally, although Guardian
principles include “dispense largesse”, neither Guardian nor Commercial organizations can
be expected to create and distribute the almost limitless benefits that will
become possible from vastly improved materials and manufacturing, so Information
groups also must have a role to play.
Ideally, each organization involved in MNT would be aware of its own
principles and
the principles
of the organizations it interacts with, and would make good decisions
about which problems to tackle and which problems to leave for someone else. In
practice, of course, organizations are usually not so self-aware, and even when
they are, shortsighted self-interest may tempt them to expand into areas where
they have no competence. In the end, an organization that overreaches itself
will find that its plans don't work; it will make ineffective and antisocial
decisions, and it will be out-competed by its fellow organizations and attacked
by those it has encroached on. However, such a process may take much time and
cause much destruction; consider the long-delayed fall of the Soviet Union, due
in large part to its application of Guardian
principles to commerce and information.
MNT will develop far too quickly for such slow adjustments.
None of the three systems of action contains the principle, “Be aware of the
limitations of your
principles.” Most organizations that attempt to deal with MNT
will not know why they act as they do or why they cannot successfully address
certain problems. If not constrained externally, they will try and fail, perhaps
creating significant waste or even tragedy. Yet the organization that is
normally responsible for constraint—the government—is itself limited in its
principles and its understanding of them.
Development and application of MNT policy cannot be reactive. The problems,
individually and collectively, could spiral out of control before today's
institutions have time to react. Prior to the advent of MNT, a collaborative
international administrative council of some kind will have to be designed
and created. However, at worldwide levels, where things move slowly, this might
take as long as twenty years. If advanced nanotechnology could arrive within ten
or fifteen years, urgent action is called for now.
This
administrative council will need global scope, and will require careful and
innovative planning to balance the requirements of Guardian, Commercial, and
Information approaches to problem solving. The proper design of such a system
will be extremely difficult to accomplish, and getting it implemented will be
even harder. The authors of this paper have been unable to identify any existing
institution capable of performing this. Those of
us who study the societal implications of nanotechnology and other advanced
technologies must find ways to address this critical lack, and prepare for the
radical changes that soon may be upon us.
END NOTES
1
Richard P. Feynman, "There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom". A
transcript can be found at
http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/feynman.html.
2
See
http://www.nsf.gov/home/crssprgm/nano/omb_nifty50.htm.
3
For an overview of factors supporting early development, see
http://www.crnano.org/timeline.htm.
4
See “Personal Nanofactories (PNs)” at
http://crnano.org/bootstrap.htm.
5
Jane Jacobs, Systems of Survival: A Dialogue on the Moral Foundations of
Commerce and Politics,
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0679748164/104-2718304-3423907.
6
Dartmouth College is providing free long distance service using VoIP technology,
because billing would cost too much. The New York Times, “A New Kind of
Revolution in the Dorms of Dartmouth”, Sept. 23, 2003,
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/23/technology/23DART.html.
7
“Open Source Initiative OSI - Welcome”,
http://www.opensource.org/.
8
Adapted from “Three Systems of Ethics for Diverse Applications”, published
online at Nanotech-Now.com,
http://nanotech-now.com/Chris-Phoenix/diverse-ethics.htm.
9
Mike Treder, “Accelerating Paradigm Shifts in Information Storage and
Retrieval”,
http://www.lucifer.com/~exi/ideas/journal/previous/2002/09-02.html.
10 The Linux home
page is at http://www.linux.org/.
11 Seagate, a
major hard drive manufacturer, has announced that it will supply disks with a
version of Linux pre-loaded at no extra charge.
http://www.lindows.com/lindows_seagate.php.
12 Steven Levy,
Hackers: Heroes of the Computer Revolution, p. 56,
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0141000511/104-0739447-3127111.
13 According to
the theory of “memes”, information evolves and copies itself in a manner similar
to genes. For a further explanation, see “Meme Central - Memes, Memetics, and
Mind Virus Resource” at
http://www.memecentral.com/.
14 A good resource
is “Digital Rights Management and Privacy”, at
http://www.epic.org/privacy/drm/.
15 For status and
analysis, see
http://www.arl.org/info/frn/copy/dmca.html.
16 “EFF Fair Use
FAQ”
http://www.eff.org/IP/eff_fair_use_faq.html (see question 4 for a brief
discussion of space-shifting).
17 Recently the
RIAA has sued individual file-sharing users, including a 65-year-old woman who
does not own a computer capable of running the accused software (http://www.internet-magazine.com/news/view.asp?id=3730).
18 “Open Source -
Gnu Project - Free Software Foundation(FSF)”
http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/free-software-for-freedom.html.
19 See, for
example, “Big Money in Thinking Small”, authored by Michael Mauboussin and
Kristen Bartholdson of Credit Suisse First Boston.
20 For more on
general purpose technologies, see
http://www.sfu.ca/~rlipsey/C2.pdf.
21 For a fuller
discussion of benefits, see
http://www.crnano.org/benefits.htm.
22 Risks are
explored in more detail at
http://www.crnano.org/dangers.htm.
23 Story at
http://webmd.lycos.com/content/article/48/39273.htm.
24 For example,
see
C&EN: BUILDING A BETTER BINDING SITE.
25
An excellent
listing of references is at
http://www.foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Ecophagy.html.
26
Bill Joy issued the most notorious call for relinquishment in his April 2000
Wired article, “Why the future doesn't need us”,
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html.
27 See “Safe
Utilization of Advanced Nanotechnology”, by Chris Phoenix and Mike Treder, at
http://www.crnano.org/safe.htm.
28
See “History of
ARPANET” at
http://www.dei.isep.ipp.pt/docs/arpa.html.
29 See
http://www.fda.gov/oc/ohrt/irbs/default.htm.
APPENDIX
Feasibility of Molecular Nanotechnology
It has been claimed repeatedly that some law of chemistry or physics will forbid
molecular nanotechnology (MNT). To date, all such claims have been refuted in
detail. Many of the objections, including those of chemist
Richard Smalley, do not
address the actual proposals. The rest are unfounded and incorrect assertions,
contradicted by detailed calculations based on the relevant physical laws.
While initial descriptions of MNT included the ability to make almost any
chemical substance—in Richard Feynman's words1, “Put the atoms down where the
chemist says, and so you make the substance”—recent work has focused on a much
more limited chemical capability. Although the feasibility of a truly general
mechanochemistry has not yet been studied in depth, the feasibility of building
rigid carbon-lattice structures has been examined by careful calculation.
Objections based on thermal noise, quantum uncertainty, or other “laws of
physics” are invariably assertions without any investigation to back them up.
All calculations to date indicate that this could be done at room temperature
with high reliability by nanoscale programmable machinery.
On the chemistry front, the most notable objections have come from Smalley, who
asserts that handling atoms with “fingers” would require fingers that were too
“fat” and too “sticky” to be effective. These objections do not apply to any
published proposal for diamond-based MNT: no such proposal has included the use
of “fingers” of any kind. In fact, these proposals do not involve the handling
of separate atoms at all; the atoms are always bound to larger molecules, and
shift their bonds from one to another in traditional chemical fashion.
Recent objections to MNT implicitly acknowledge its theoretical feasibility, but
assert that it is too complex a problem to be solved any time soon. However,
these objections have also been addressed in the literature. Much
mechanochemical complexity vanishes with the shift from MNT to LMNT—from general
chemistry to limited diamondoid chemistry. The complexity of large MNT-based
manufacturing systems turns out to be surprisingly low. A peer-reviewed
technical paper
by CRN's Director of Research has examined the issues involved in combining
quadrillions of nanoscale fabricators into a tabletop factory, including power
and heat, reliability, control, and convergent assembly of parts into products.
The paper concludes that all of these issues are addressable within the scope of
current engineering practice.
|